Horizon Scanning for Medical Technologies: Methodological Framework Development Study of the Medical Innovation Scanning Techniques (MIST) Framework

This paper presents the MedTech Innovation Scanning Techniques (MIST) framework, a structured methodological approach for horizon scanning in medical technologies. It addresses gaps in existing foresight methods by combining weak signal detection, the Three Horizons model, the Rumsfeld matrix, technology readiness levels, regulatory considerations, and evidence sources relevant to the MedTech innovation pathway.

The framework supports systematic identification, interpretation, and prioritisation of emerging, transitional, and imminent MedTech innovations across different levels of uncertainty. By aligning horizon scanning methods with regulatory, technical, and evidential complexity, MIST aims to improve transparency, reproducibility, and comparability in anticipatory decision-making for policy, regulatory, clinical, and strategic contexts. While formal validation is ongoing, the paper positions MIST as a methodological contribution to improving how emerging and disruptive MedTech innovations are detected and assessed.